After selecting the technology stack, we moved on to implementation. Our task was to create a web service for forecasting the number of incidents and simulating data from ModelRisk. During development, we relied on pre-existing mathematical models provided by the client, as well as the structure of the Excel file the client previously used for calculations.
The parameters defined in the model are calculated based on probability distribution functions. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios are generated for the model’s uncertain parameters.
The output of the model is an estimation of the number of incidents on a yearly and monthly basis for future periods, taking into account the selection of distributions based on uploaded cybersecurity incident statistics.